Summary
- Africa's aviation sector is set to experience significant growth, with a demand for over 1,000 new aircraft predicted by Airbus and Boeing.
- Nigerian carriers are expected to require nearly 160 new aircraft by 2042, reflecting the country's robust aviation sector and growing passenger numbers.
- The growth of the aviation sector in Africa will drive the need for enhanced local and regional Maintenance and Overhaul (MRO) services, generating additional revenue and reducing maintenance costs for airlines.
The African aviation sector is expected to grow immensely over the two decades, with some regions growing faster than others. Intra-Africa traffic will continue to increase as more routes open up, and to support this, carriers in the continent will need more aircraft. Airbus and Boeing have predicted that African operators will require over 1,000 new aircraft, with single-aisle jets making up most of the deliveries.
Airbus Global Market Focus
Airbus predicts Africa will require about 1,180 new aircraft by 2042, including 885 single-aisle and 295 widebody jets. Furthermore, it expects African carriers to transition to new-generation models, such as the A220, A320neo family, A330neo, and A350. This switch will drive operational efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, in line with airlines' sustainability goals.
Photo: Rebius | Shutterstock.
Africa currently has 265 Airbus aircraft in operation with 36 airlines, including Air Cote d'Ivoire, Air Tanzania, Air Senegal, Egyptair, Ethiopian Airlines, RwandAir, and Uganda Airlines. Other African carriers have placed significant orders for new Airbus aircraft as part of their fleet development plans.
Read the latest Airbus news here.
Nigeria prospects
Home to over 22 foreign carriers and 23 active domestic airlines, Nigeria has one of the most robust aviation sectors in Africa. It is expected to continuously grow over the next 20 years, and Airbus predicts that airlines in Nigeria will require nearly 160 passenger and freight aircraft by 2042. About 131 single-aisle aircraft and 28 widebodies will be delivered to Nigerian carriers during that period.
As the most populous country in Africa, aviation plays a significant in moving people and goods around Nigeria. It is also essential to the socio-economic development of African states, facilitating domestic, regional, and intercontinental trade and creating multiple employment opportunities.
Photo: Ibom Air
In 2022, about 16.1 million passengers flew through Nigerian airports. About 12.6 million passengers were carried by domestic airlines, while international operators carried the remaining 3.5 million. With traffic in Africa edging closer to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, the number of Nigerian passengers is expected to grow over the next few years.
Airbus predicts that average yearly service demand in Africa will increase by 4.1%, from $2 billion to $7 billion, as a result of the growth of the aviation sector. Enhancing local and regional Maintenance and Overhaul (MRO) services will be essential to the sector's growth, safety, and longevity. According to the global manufacturer, developing MRO services in Nigeria will generate additional revenue while reducing aircraft maintenance costs for local airlines.
Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook
Boeing also sees the potential of the African aviation sector, expecting intra-Africa passenger traffic to more than quadruple in the next two decades. According to the American manufacturer, about 1,025 new aircraft will be required to support this growth.
Photo: John Taggart via Flickr
It expects overall air traffic in the continent to grow by 7.4%, approximately 1.3% higher than the global average and the third-highest increase among global regions. Boeing Managing Director of Commercial Marketing for the Middle East and Africa Randy Heisey said;
"African carriers are well-positioned to support intra-regional traffic growth and capture market share by offering services that efficiently connect passengers and enable commerce within the continent. We forecast an increase in the average aircraft size and seats per aircraft for the African fleet, as single aisles, like the Boeing 737 MAX, will be the most in demand for the continent."
Europe is expected to remain the most prominent origin and destination for African travelers. As such, operators in the continent will grow their fleets by 4.5% annually to support the projected increase in passenger traffic. According to Boeing, the 3.4% long-term annual economic growth, rising urbanization rates, and a growing middle-class population will mainly drive Africa's long-term traffic demand.
Read the latest Boeing news here.
Operators are expected to receive 730 new single-aisle aircraft to support domestic and regional air travel. On the other hand, about 275 passenger and freight widebodies will be delivered to African carriers to support long-haul operations. About 90% of all deliveries will comprise more fuel-efficient aircraft like the 737 MAX, 777X, and 787 Dreamliner.
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