With the ‘scramble’ for Africa turning into the ‘rush’ for Africa, the United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken recently arrived on the African continent for the second time in as many years.
Such strategic foreign visits are becoming a trend now: with visits from the French President Emmanuel Macron to the traditionally Francophone states in the north and Sergei Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister) touring Uganda, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Egypt (several of these associated with the Chinese Belt-and-Road Initiative). Clearly motivated by the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war, these foreign policy visits are aimed at leveraging key African States into supporting the adversarial sides. The Russian visit is positioned to support the Russian disinformation campaign raging in Europe to “counteract Western blame of Russia for a growing global food crisis. Experts say Russia will push its own narrative as to why it’s attacking Ukraine and use the visit to show it has friends.”
The BRICS membership represent 42% of the world population, of which South Africa contribute a miniscule fraction. BRICS also represent 23% of the global economy. Due to the level of asymmetry, South Africa should be realistic in its expectation of growth from this partnership, probably peaking during 2021. With the ongoing war in Europe and the hegemonic and imperialistic tendencies of China combined with the severe shrinking in the Russian and Chinese economies due to international divestment, the BRICS economic partnership is systematically being crippled by the poor foreign policy choices of both Russia and China.
Against this background it may be strategically pivotal for South Africa to assess new opportunities to build sustainable relationships with western democratic nations in support of reinvigorating its flailing economy and as a strategic counterweight. Russia is clearly not an economic partner for any African country as it is “noticeably flexing its power in Africa, where mercenaries with the Wagner Group are infiltrating governments to protect authoritarian regimes, exploit vast natural resources, and exact violence” – as outgoing AFRICOM Commander, Gen. Stephen Townsend warns. “To assess the future of Russia-Africa relations it is necessary to be clear that the “partnerships” that Russia seeks in Africa are not state- but elite-based.”
One such opportunity South Africa has shunned for the longest of time – the establishment of US military African Command (AFRICOM) on African, even South African soil – could just prove to be a golden opportunity for all involved.
AFRICOM – key to growth opportunity
“To help build a democracy-driven economic power that can mitigate Russian or Chinese coercive influence, an investment-led Africa strategy must plan and work on longer timelines — at least a decade” – the words of Dr Joseph Sany, Vice President, Africa Center. Yet, South Africa has steered away from an invitation to host AFRICOM within its borders for historical reasons, which are closely linked to the armed struggle against apartheid and has been more accommodating towards both Russia and China due to their historic support of liberation movements in both Africa and South Africa. This predisposition was clearly articulated in the Parliamentary Monitoring Group (PMG 2008) Report on AFRICOM of 5 March 2008. The PMG 2008 resolutions regarding AFRICOM at that time (almost 15 years ago) was to base any Parliamentary decisions on the “expressed reservations about AFRICOM” and “[t]hat the South African Parliament’s pronouncement on the matter should also be informed by the position of SADC which is against hosting of AFRICOM in the region.” There was also a request tabled for a seminar on AFRICOM that should involve and “the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Defence, academics and civil society”.
In 2015, Prof Theo Neethling posited the question whether South Africa “should take up a more active partnership with AFRICOM, using its own leverage as a leader on the continent and the possibility of alternative options of support, to more fully deliver on the stated goals of South Africa’s foreign policy and the Africa Agenda.” To date this call hasn’t been answered. With wide-ranging changes in the international community, and serious challenges within the South African defence sector, South Africans should revisit the 2008 resolutions and have new discussions in the interest of South African growth agenda and the requirements for and benefits of having a vibrant defence sector as a hybrid deterrence capability.
In a conflicted world, facing both a post-COVID-19 recession and the present Russo-Ukraine war and its global impact, the economic development of just about every country on earth is negatively affected. South Africa could certainly benefit from improving the odds of sustainable economic growth backed by foreign direct investment. Thus, inviting the US to a bilateral discussion about the benefits (for both countries) of having AFRICOM in South Africa should ultimate address issues of US foreign direct investment in South Africa (typically in the defence sector but not exclusively).
Economic growth is directly linked to a state’s domestic security. Frankly, it is AFRICOM’s relentless pursuit of its mission in Africa to bolster the domestic capabilities of African States against insurgent groups such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS and the Wagner Group, and not the current efforts of any of key BRIC partners. With the newly appointed AFRICOM leadership, Lt. Gen. Michael Langley (the first African-American four-star general in US Marine Corps history), a less patronising approach to cooperation could be expected. This command appointment of an ever increasing, strategic US military command shows that the US is responding to some critical introspection as to their future relations with Africa.
Unlocking growth and investment
The benefits of being the host to a critical US military command should not be underestimated and this might be where South Africa is lacking critical vision. Approaching a growth future involves brave leadership that embraces opportunity. Such growth opportunity for South Africa must now be bravely embraced by inviting new dialogue about what the US and AFRICOM has to offer for the South African people. The asymmetry of such a collaboration cannot be ignored. However, as AFRICOM is linked to the biggest economy in the world, the most advanced technology developer and innovator, and one of the most progressive democratic states, South Africa can only benefit from such a collaborative relationship – when carefully negotiated and managed. This is probably now more possible than ever with changing postures towards Africa in Washington.
More specifically, the collapsed South African defence industry should be first in line for technology rejuvenation, capital investment, and access to new markets as spinoff from such a strategic initiative. This will create much needed employment opportunities in the defence sector and second- and third tier supply chains which are currently slowly collapsing due to the implosion of Denel. It could also see the engineering skill, lost to the Middle East and other countries, return to South Africa. The combination of AFRICOM, as a networked econ-military complex, with the legacy South African defence industrial capacity could see this sector boom into the defence industrial hub of Africa. Such a strategic relationship can unlock A strategic vision to create such a future was expressed already in 2020 by the Joint Standing Committee on Defence – “Government has expressed its wish to support the defence industry to become export driven on the back of international investment by having a policy stance favouring international joint ventures (JVs) with local industry.”
South Africa will have opportunities to train with the multifaceted US military and could get access to military equipment co-developed for the African environment. This could offset the loss of training opportunities during the previous half-decade. The National Development Plan states “In particular, young people deserve better educational and economic opportunities”. As skills development and education are priorities for South Africa, such opportunities should be embraced by South Africa in general – welcoming AFRICOM to South Africa will accelerate this potential.
Inclusion in military exercises, such as African Lion, Shared Accord, and others will add to the South African National Defence Force’s understanding of joint inter-agency, inter-departmental and multi-national operations. The preparation for such exercises via the AFRICOM headquarters in South Africa will also bolster interactivity between South Africa and other African nations which will reinforce African foreign relations.
Being a host of an US military command should also provide better access to erstwhile controlled US military and dual-use technology. With the possibility of closer cooperation between the US and SA defence industrial complexes, market in traditionally closed segments of the world should be accessible. The defence industrial complex can also offset the South African dependencies on commodities.
New supply chains will likely be developed to assist the movement of logistics through the challenging African environment. With South Africa as the point of entry, revenue, port-, logistics and secondary supply chain infrastructure and systems will benefit. It will also see the establishment of strategic airlift capabilities (public and possibly private) in support of freight distribution operations.
Hosting AFRICOM in South Africa should, after more than a decade and against the current background of struggling economic growth, be regarded as probably the first accessible key to unlock growth and prosperity for every South African citizen and the region.
Written by Dr Dries Putter, Department of Strategic Studies, University of Stellenbosch and National Security Hub, University of Canberra, and Prof Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann, National Security Hub, University of Canberra and Research Fellow SIGLA, University of Stellenbosch.
