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Aug 08

Why the Wagner Group Won’t Leave Africa

Analysis Why the Wagner Group Won’t Leave Africa

The mercenary group is a product of the system Putin built, and he can’t dismantle it without undermining Moscow’s global influence.

By John A. Lechner, an analyst concentrating on the politics of Russia, Turkey, and African nations, and Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner Group commander in Syria.

A demonstrator holds a Russian flag in Bangui, on March 22 during a march in support of Russia and China's presence in the Central African Republic.
A demonstrator holds a Russian flag in Bangui, on March 22 during a march in support of Russia and China's presence in the Central African Republic.
A demonstrator holds a Russian flag in Bangui, on March 22 during a march in support of Russia and China's presence in the Central African Republic. Barbara Debout/AFP via Getty Images
  • Ukraine

John A. Lechner is an analyst concentrating on the politics of Russia, Turkey, and African nations, with a special focus on conflict in the Central African Republic. Previously, he worked as part of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, a bipartisan federal government advisory body. Twitter: @JohnLechner1

Marat Gabidullin joined Wagner Group in 2015, rising to the rank of commander in Syria. In 2019, he resigned from Wagner and published a memoir in Russia called Into the Same River, Twice (translated into French as Moi, Marat). His second book, Ma Verité, was published this year.

  • Ukraine

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A crowd of residents of Bangui, Central African Republic, demonstrate on the street on a cloudy day. In the foreground, a man in a yellow shirt waves a Russian flag. Next to him, another man bows his head with his hands clasped, possibly in prayer.
A crowd of residents of Bangui, Central African Republic, demonstrate on the street on a cloudy day. In the foreground, a man in a yellow shirt waves a Russian flag. Next to him, another man bows his head with his hands clasped, possibly in prayer.

What the Wagner Mutiny Means for China in Africa

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a virtual trilateral meeting to discuss the topic of Syria with the leaders of Iran and Turkey.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a virtual trilateral meeting to discuss the topic of Syria with the leaders of Iran and Turkey.

The Wagner Mutiny Could Strengthen Iran in Syria

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Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow.

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