Regional Integration for Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa  

Paper presented at Ethiopia Forum: Challenges and Prospects for Constitutional Democracy in Ethiopia

Dr. Daniel Kandie
International Center, Michigan State University
East Lansing, Michigan
March 22-24, 2019

Abstract:

The Horn of Africa denotes the sub-region consisting of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia. Somalia has become for some time synonymous with poverty and conflict. The causes of the conflicts could be internal, or external. To date, several encouraging policy declarations have been made. However, the maintenance of peace in the sub-region has been delusional, illusory, and seeming.

The major objective of this paper is to investigate the following question: Can cross-border economic cooperation serve to advance the cause of peace and development in the sub-region? The chosen theoretical approach is what is commonly known as inter-governmental cooperation. Because of Ethiopia’s geographic location, its ethnic make-up, which spills over across international borders. And the complementary nature of its natural resources, is supposed to play a central role in enhancing cooperation and integration of the sub-region. But such a critical role would be possible for Ethiopia, if the leadership discharges its responsibility in a trustworthy and principled manner.

The paper defines terms, examines the American and European ways of integration for lessons that may be learned, examines past attempts to reconcile conflicts, and reviews the recommendations of various scholars regarding the future of the sub-region, and proposes different bi-lateral projects which could facilitate trade and integration. Federation is recommended as a future goal.

Introduction

The four countries which make-up the Horn of Africa sub-region, have a total area of some 2 million square km and a combined population that is slightly over 100 million. Apart from geographic proximity, these countries have also very close cultural and historical affinity, as well as economic interdependence. Any serious development in any one of them, will have either positive or negative consequences for the peace and development of the others.

They belong to the category of what the United Nations identifies as the “Least Developed” of the developing world. They are all confronted with the same problems of growth and development, same challenges in fighting poverty, illiteracy, hunger, mass displacement and technical backwardness.

Cooperation among any group of countries in the world is always beneficial. But as far as the countries of the sub-region are concerned, there are special factors which make it even more incumbent upon them to intensify cooperation. Because of serious political differences, they have deprived themselves of the benefits that only a coordinated sub-regional development cooperation could give them peace and stability. Without such a possibility, growth and development for some has become a formidable task, and for others, severely constrained. Even some measure of development cooperation can open some possibilities for political accommodation. And once the benefits of cooperation, however limited, are recognized, they can have multiplier effects and become positive factors in influencing policy.[1]

Countries at similar levels of growth and development often have similar needs for technical cooperation. By coordinating their development plans, they could diversify their economies and give priority to one another’s markets and reduce external dependence. They would have to discard ‘imitative growth’ and evolve a development pattern that links the rate of domestic resource use to domestic demand and promote the growth of indigenous technology.[2] The growth rate figures [ 2018] for Ethiopia were 7.7%, Djibouti 5.6%, Eritrea 4.2%, and Somalia 2.9%.

The need for structural changes:

The countries of the sub-region should give priority to carrying out fundamental structural changes in all sectors, in order to promote stability, development, and viability. The provinces in each country should have the power of legislation that is relevant to their needs. In the long run, the creation of a federal system of government embracing the four countries, we believe, will go a long way in addressing the abiding problems. Such a federation should have a federal assembly, integration of the armed forces, amalgamation of diplomatic services, and the use of a common currency. Such courses of action will reduce duplication of efforts and help to save critically needed resources.

The management of federal roads, railways, ports, airports, and the like, by a central authority will create efficiency. Experts from the four countries can do the technical aspects of the job. What is crucial is the commitment of the leadership. As Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed rightly points out, in a sub-region that is dogged in poverty, there no need for the four countries to have different armies and embassies.

As of March 21, 2018, the African Continental Free Trade Area that is designed to establish a single market for goods and services across 54 countries has emerged. While Djibouti and Ethiopia have ratified the agreement, as of July 2019 Eritrea and Somalia have not. Lifting the trade tariff even by those that have ratified the agreement, is not going to be an easy task. The domestic market needs to be protected. Ethiopia, for one, is saying that it needs some 15 years of preparation to be able to participate fully, and that it is working with other countries which have similar interests.[3] Those countries with whom it is working, happen to be its Horn of Africa neighbours.

Definition of Terms:

Words can mean different things to different types of readers. In order to facilitate communication, therefore, it has been found necessary to define the key terms that appear in the text. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

Federation- can be defined as a system of government that is based on the sharing of power at the central, provincial, and the local level, each of which retains control of its own internal affairs. The federal government usually has exclusive control over such responsibilities as foreign affairs, national security, national defense, foreign trade, currency and banking, federal transport and communications, education, public health and environmental affairs. The signing of internationally binding agreements is normally the responsibility of the federal government. To that end, essential revenue would be made available to the federal government to discharge its share of duties.[4]

Confederation- is an association of sovereign states, which surrender certain powers for clearly defined purposes. Otherwise, all powers are retained by member states, which enjoy relative independence. They usually cooperate in matter of defence and foreign affairs and enjoy the advantage of free trade and economic cooperation in a wide area. The forum for addressing the causes of conflicts and resolving them peacefully is usually provided. Confederation is a step towards a higher level of political and economic integration, including federation. It would be easier to withdraw from a confederation than from a federation.[5]

Growth entails an increase in output, or a net addition to the existing stock of capital or labour.[6] But there can be growth without development.

Development is an increase in the standard of living. For Michael Todaro, it is a multi-dimensional process involving the reorganization and reorientation of the entire economic and social systems. [1981, 56]. Although development is usually defined in a national context, its wide- spread realization may necessitate fundamental modifications of the international economic and social system as well. [7]

It is a process of social and economic advancement in terms of the quality of human life. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa It means increasing possibilities in education, public health, housing, transport, and employment opportunities for the population. Respecting the rights of women is critical. Children too have rights. Reversing environmental degradation has also become an integral part of the development scenario.

In the context of the Horn of Africa, development implies settlement of nomads; afforestation and reforestation of the land; substantial decrease in the number of internally displaced persons as well as of refugees; acquiring food security; provision of clean water supply, electricity, and housing; transport, educational, and health facilities expansion.

A fair regional allocation of development funds is a must for a leadership to acquire legitimacy. In the case of Ethiopia, for instance, in the last 26 years, by breaking the principle of what economists recommend as ‘regional balance’, some 32% of all new industries have been installed in what is called “Oromia,” and only 4% in what is referred to as “Amhara.” In the same way, some 15 hospitals were opened in Tigray, whereas in the Gondar region, which has a higher population than Tigray, only one referral hospital has been built for a population of more than seven million.[8]

Cooperation, should be understood to mean coordination, harmonization and institutionalization of inter-state activities for the purpose of facilitating integration.

Integration stands for closely knit political and economic relationships. In its political sense, it means strong cohesiveness within a social group, and political integration is present when a governmental unit of some sort is cohesive. On the other hand, economic integration is a process by which discrimination along existing national borders is progressively removed between two or more countries. Confederation, federation, free trade area, customs unions, common market, and so on, are all means of integration.[9]

Benefits of Integration:

Integration at the sub-regional or regional level can contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability. It can also promote the mobilization of resources for growth and development over a wide area. Moreover, it can contribute to the reduction of external interference in what a subregion/region considers an internal affair. The four countries, for instance, can jointly request the International Monetary Fund [ IMF] to establish a currency clearing mechanism allowing businesses to pay for goods in either country’s local currency or medium of exchange.[10]

Eritrea’s current problems with some world airlines is a case in point. Integration will relieve resources and make it possible for them to finance other critically important sectors of the economy. It may be argued that the use of a common currency does not buy goods and services abroad. True, but it can finance the construction of projects that do not require hard currency. Besides, the sub-region will continue to participate in international trade. In that way, it would be fully engaging in long term growth and development efforts.

Ethiopia’s Potential:

Ethiopia has the potential to re-shape the Horn of Africa.[11] In fact, it can be described as a regional energizing catalyst. According to the late Professor Said Samatar, “Ethiopia holds the key to the future of the desperate region. When the mother goose of Japan took off economically in the post-war era, the goslings of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, and may be even Malaysia, woke up to fly to the honking of mother goose, Japan.

Naturally, Ethiopia the great Mother Goose of the Horn for the reasons sketched in this study. Therefore, the proposition considers Ethiopia as the primary country in the sub-region, around which hangs the destiny of the rest. Given appropriate leadership, Ethiopia can be nudged into an economic liftoff, perhaps the goslings of Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia may be stimulated into following its lead. But Ethiopia would have to earn it by proving [ itself]. This view, therefore, calls on the international community to make Ethiopia’s economic transformation the priority global agenda.”[12]

Djibouti and Ethiopia – strongly believe in integration. They have road, railway and electricity links. The 112 kms long Tadjurah – Balho road linking the two countries has been opened. Similarly, the 220 kms toll way express road linking Dire Dawa with Dewale town bordering Djibouti, which reduces truck- driving distance from one day to only four hours, has been completed.

Ethiopia provides Djibouti freely some 100,000 cubic meters of portable water daily. Ethiopia also pays Djibouti some $1 billion in revenue for rental and port service payments. Djibouti is building new ports to meet Ethiopia’s growing needs. Ethiopia is to take a stake on Djibouti port, and Djibouti is to invest in any sector of the Ethiopian economy.[13]

Somaliland and Ethiopia: Somaliland stresses the importance of economic integration with Ethiopia. The Togo Wuchale – Berbera road is being built with the assistance of the UAE at the cost of some $90 million. DP WORLD has 51% of the ownership of the shares of the port of Berbera, while Somaliland owns 30% of the shares, and Ethiopia has 19%.

[14]Ethiopia and Eritrea: Before 1988, they had a common market. However, because of a protracted dispute that led to war, relations were cut off. Now, at long last, relations have improved. The leaders have come to an agreement to work for the integration of the sub-region. This, by itself, is very positive and encouraging because it opens several avenues of cooperation for mutual benefit. Access to the ports of Massawa and Assab would be cost effective for Ethiopia because of competition from the other ports. Eritrea, in turn, gains in revenue generation and in employment opportunities for its citizens. Both countries have agreed to deepen socio-economic integration and to increase bilateral trade.

[15] Likewise, as we will see later, a series of agreements have also been signed between Somalia and Ethiopia.

Ethiopia could have played, as Dr Samatar postulates, a highly significant role as a lynchpin of integration and transformation of the sub-region. But unfortunately, it lacks the required visionary leadership that is equal to the challenges that lie ahead. The country beset with ethnic tension, wrecked by violence, death of innocent people, and destruction of property.

[16] The single cause of all this tragedy happens to be the policy of ethnicity that has become the modus operandi of the state. It was copied blindly from some European countries by unimaginative leaders and political activists. As a result, in today’s Ethiopia, ethnicity continues to impede the optimum harnessing of human and non-human resources. It fosters parochial relationships and encourages nepotism and corruption. It also slows down the development of rational and efficient forms of political administration, and economic management, and has become a serious barrier to factor mobility.[17]

The Horn of Africa is also a sub-region where common population groups straddle across common boundaries and spill over across international borders. As Sarah Vaughan [Ethnicity and Power in Ethiopia [2003:5] views it, Ethiopia’s ethnic policy poses legal, political, economic, and administrative issues with enflaming passions. Its neighbours have publicly expressed their serious concerns.

Until and unless the existing constitution, as well as the apartheid system which prevails in the country is revoked, and ethnicity stamped out as the ideology of the state, there will never peace in Ethiopia. As if that was not enough, the sub-region is also being packed with competing global powers and regional actors who have divergent interests. They have an axe to grind. Some of them have planted their agents in Ethiopia and are busy adding fuel to the flame. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

Going back to multi-ethnic provinces:

Multi-ethnic provincialism or regionalism than ethnicity has been the dominant feature of identity in Ethiopian history. In fact, most Ethiopians being products of mixed marriages, still identify with their lands of birth. Multi-ethnic provincial identities were, therefore, affirmative. Even in more modern times, uprisings against governments were not ethnic based. The rebellions in such provinces as Tigray, Gondar, Wollo, Gojjam, Bale, Sidamo, or the Ogaden, were based on a combination of various factors, but not necessarily on ethnic grounds.

[18] Today, however, multi-ethnic provincialism is being attacked by warlike ethnocentric individuals and groups, who play the ‘tribal’ card to use it as a short-cut to power. Unfortunately, the historic provinces of the country were nullified in 1993 by a politically motivated regime that had no mandate at all. At the end of the day, restoring the provinces and re-organizing them on a federal basis, will be in the best interest of the country.

It will promote peace and stability. Peace and Development in the Horn of AfricaThe 1974 Manifesto of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), claimed that the organization’s first task was to establish an independent Democratic Republic of Tigray. What was to be the financial basis of the proposed “independent” state is quite a mystery. Some 75% of the province’s budget still covered by Addis Ababa.

TPLF

The TPLF also announced that it will support the struggle of all “nationalities” in Ethiopia to have the right to self- determination, including secession. It did so not to promote the well-being of the common man, but for self-serving ends. First, to weaken Pan-Ethiopian nationalism, and secondly, to recruit ethicized militants from other provinces who could easily be manipulated to do its bidding, and lastly, it did so in the interest of the Machiavellian dictum of divide and rule.

When the TPLF insisted that the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front [EPLF] should permit Eritreans the right to self- determination, it did so, in effect, to facilitate its annexation of the Kebessa highlands, regardless of the consequences to the maintenance of the territorial integrity of Eritrea. The EPLF leadership was simply pissed off.

Bewildered and Desperat

It retaliated by cutting off its relations with the TPLF and blocked all its passage to the outside world through Eritrea. Bewildered and desperate, while looking for alternative outlets to the Sudan, the TPLF entered Wolkait by accident and occupied it by force and started to practice its own brand of self-determination – killing, or evicting, or imprisoning a total of 70, 000 of the inhabitants, and then settling 500,000 peasant farmers from Tigray, its own refugees from the Sudan, and TPLF soldiers. The irony of it all is that despite the available historical evidence, the TPLF leaders still claim that Wolkait has been a territory of Tigray.

This claim has been repeated ad nauseam even when the inhabitants themselves are saying that they are not Tigreans and have never been part of Tigray. The highly principled Leul Ras Mengesha Yohannes, great grandson of Emperor Yohannes IV, and former governor of Tigrai, as well as the former administrator of Tigray, Gebru Asrat, have both declared that Wolkait, Tesegede, Tselemt and Raya, have never been part of Tigray. A timely solution to this grave problem will make it possible for northern Ethiopians to contribute their share to the stability of the country, and the integration of the sub-region.Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

The American Way of Integration:

There is a lot to learn from American history. Let us briefly examine American methods of integration to see if there is anything that could be applicable to the Horn of Africa. To begin with, the Americans gave priority to political and administrative union, and on the umbrella of that union, to promote industrialization and economic integration.

Hence, after gaining their independence from colonial Britain in 1776, the 13 former colonies ratified the current constitution in 1788, and ultimately, they came to be inspired by a vision of ‘Divine Providence’ called “manifest destiny” – a belief in the inherent superiority of white America, which triggered the right to expand from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. To that end, west ward, expansion was to result in the creation of states like Wisconsin and Illinois.

North Dakota

The entire area from North Dakota to Louisiana was bought from France in 1803 for some $15 million. War with Mexico (1846-1848), and the annexation of Texas (1865) was to lead to the creation of more new states like California, Utah and Nevada. Finally, Alaska purchased (1867) from the Russians for $7.5 million. At the end of the Civil War (1860-1865), and Re-construction [1865-1879], spurred by incredible determination, industrialization continued. The process took place in a system resembling autarchy, which imposed huge tariffs on imports to protect domestic industry. When, in 1853, the USA sent the naval commander, Commodore Perry, to Japan on an “open door policy,” it was not difficult to see that America was already flexing its muscles.[19]

That said, the price native Americans paid in all this should not overlooked. The constant loss of land, the changing of lifestyles, the reservation camps, the forced assimilation, and the loss of populations because of their inability to resist imported diseases like smallpox, are all cases in point.[20]

The European Way of Integration:

Europe too has a lot to offer. European integration gave priority to economic integration first. Once that was achieved, the plan was to go into political union. If we limit the discussion to economics, there is what David Ricardo terms as “comparative advantage” – the ability to produce a given commodity at lower cost when compared to others. There is also what economists call ‘economies of scale’ -that is- the need for a larger market which permits mass production of goods than is possible within a limited domestic market. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

In a free trade area, internal tariffs either considerably reduced or completely abolished. Each member state keeps its own tariffs when it comes to third parties. A customs union abolishes internal tariffs and uses a common external tariff based on arithmetic average. On the other hand, in a common market. There is the use of a common currency, and mobility of capital and labour.

Economic union implies a single market, a common currency, free movement of capital and labour, as well as harmonization of monetary and fiscal policies. The establishment of European Coal and Steel Community (1950), the European Parliament (1952), the creation of the European Economic Community (1957), the European Customs Union (1968), the Treaty of Maastricht (1992) which established the European Union as well as the Euro, are all watersheds in the economic and political integration of Europe.[21]

Calls for Federation/Confederation of the Horn of Africa:

Emperor Haile Selassie was among the first to describe the sub-region as a natural economic unit. In fact, as early as 1958, he proposed a federation between Ethiopia and Somaliland. A year later, he requested the USA to support an association of Ethiopia, Sudan and Somaliland.[22] In 1961, the President of Somalia, Aden Abdullah Osman, had expressed his willingness to join Ethiopia in a federation, if the Ogaden were made available to Somalia[23] – a request that was found improper and offensive. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

A decade later, President Fidel Castro, who chaired a meeting in Aden between Ethiopia, Somalia and South Yemen in March 1977, had proposed a confederation between the three countries – a proposal that Ethiopia and Yemen accepted, but which Siad Barre, the President of Somalia, flatly rejected and walked out of the meeting. He launched an unprovoked and pre-meditated aggression against Ethiopia, in order to annex the Ogaden Province.

To put it briefly, thousands were killed or crippled, and billions of dollars worth of property was destroyed. However, the irony of it all that, in a meeting which took place in Djibouti in March 1988, the same Siad Barre, renounced all of Somalia’s territorial claims against Ethiopia, and agreed to cooperate in the demarcation of that section of the common border that had not been demarcated.[24]

The Eritrean leader, Isaias Afeworki, too, did propose a confederation with Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia.[25] The leaders of the Djibouti Movement Populaire de Liberation, which changed its name to Front Democratique de Liberation de Djibouti, look at their country’s future in relation to the federation of the countries of the Horn of Africa.[26]

The Scholars:

According to Tom Farer, the political divisions of the Horn of Africa are potentially symbiotic. Therefore, some form of confederation between Ethiopia and Somalia should be worked out.[27] For Roy Pateman, there are strong enough political and economic imperatives that make a North East African Common Market the long- term future of the region. A stable Ethiopia would bring stability to the whole region. A voluntary federation of Ethiopia and Eritrea seems likely.[28] Likewise, I.M. Lewis believes that the most viable long – term solution would seem to lie in some form of a federation between Somalia and Ethiopia.[29]

Sub-Regional Cooperation/ Integration:

A Joint Declaration on Comprehensive Cooperation between Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea was signed in Asmara, Eritrea on September 5, 2018. The Declaration affirms that the three countries shall build closely political, economic, social, and security ties, and promote regional peace and security. To that end, they established a joint High-Level committee to coordinate their efforts.

The second meeting of the three leaders took place in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, (November 9-10, 2018), where they agreed to work for peace and the integration of the Horn of Africa. The question of respecting the territorial integrity of Somalia and the lifting of sanctions against Eritrea was also discussed. Their third meeting was in Mogadisho, Somalia, where the need for building the common infrastructure was, among other things, considered. The conflicts between Eritrea and Djibouti were raised in a meeting in Jeddah, chaired by King Salman of Saudi Arabia.[30]

At the political level, as we have seen, there are agreements between the leaders, which indicate their willingness to work for sub-regional integration. That, by itself, is indeed very encouraging – a cause for cautious optimism. If the policy declarations were to backed with action, political ties can strengthened, and the required institutional structures could be created for coordination and harmonization of policies.

Should the process of integration in the Horn of Africa go the European way, or the American way? Or should it be a combination of both? There is a lot that one can learn from the Americans and the Europeans. But when it comes to the issue at hand, the truth is, foreign models should not be copied blindly because they will not work. At this stage, creativity and innovation would be more appropriate and commendable in order to respond to objective conditions.

The different ways and methods with which each country approaches its problems lead inevitably to the development of a vast array of methods and techniques which would enable them to learn from one another. In that context, sub-regional cooperation should be considered as a means for a higher degree of national development and as a stepping–stone to sub-regional integration. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

For Meles Zenawi, the late Prime Minister of Ethiopia, who was fascinated by the ‘Asian model’ of Singapore and South Korea, there is no connection between development and democracy. He claims that “development is a political process first and an economic and social process later. It is the creation of a political set-up that is conducive to accelerate development that sets the ball of development rolling.”[31]

Read: The Dawn of a New Era in the Horn of Africa

The new Prime Minister, Abiye Ahmed is espousing a liberal economic doctrine that will provide a greater role for the private sector in the economy, and supports free enterprise and free competition in the marketplace of ideas. [32] Nevertheless, these two differing approaches to development need to be debated.

Infrastructural Cooperation:

The United Nations as well as the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), have recommended regional cooperation and integration in order to overcome underdevelopment. As a matter of fact, the boosting of regional integration to encourage sustainable development happens to be one of the World Bank’s strategies.[33]

In this connection, let us raise the following questions: Will OECD member countries provide technical assistance to the Horn of Africa sub-regional group in the various fields in which it may be desired? Could some of the accepted rules of international trade adjusted in favour of such groups? Would they provide financial assistance at strategic points to ease the difficulties that may arise in the extension of the economy? If the response is yes, perhaps, the Secretary General of the United Nations could take the initiative to help raise funds to finance some of the projects that have been identified. He could also appoint one of the specialized agencies of the U.N., may be the UNDP, as a coordinating and implementing agency.

Infrastructural cooperation

Infrastructural cooperation is a preliminary necessity for any effective cooperation between these countries with the view to promote trade and development. For example, Somalia exports livestock, sorghum, corn, bananas, fish and so on. Eritrea exports livestock, sorghum, fish, textiles, and so on. Djibouti’s exports are mostly Ethiopian products. Ethiopia exports diverse products, but it is not something based on which one would want to propose sub-regional trade. Their national economies [Ethiopia excepted] are small. They not helped by the diminutive size of their populations and internal markets. Each country differs in its capacities, in its endowment of resources, in the scale of its internal market and its export possibilities.

Nevertheless, lack of factor endowments can compensated for by some commonly acceptable arrangements. That said, construction of the infrastructure will make little sense if there is limited trade amongst the countries themselves. The more so, when these countries have more contacts with the outside world, than with themselves. Since our objective is to reverse the situation. The ubiquitous role of trade in virtually all cooperative efforts should not be minimized.

Consequently, we should not view the importance of trade in separation from the other sectors of the economy, be it industry, agriculture, energy, transport, or human resources. Trade is stressed here not because trade by itself can create the necessary environment for accelerated growth and development, but

because it is an indispensable instrument in virtually all programmes of cooperation for development. There articles of which there surplus production above the domestic needs of a given country, but which are being imported from outside the sub-region. There may also be articles of which production in one of the countries of the sub-region, small at present, because of the small domestic market, but which would increase in proportion to the expansion of the sub-regional market. Effects from economies of scale can expected and markets created.

Proposals for Co-operation and Collaboration:

We will shortly view some vitally important projects. For the realization of which, cooperation between these countries, as well as the international community, would be needed. They identified for pre-feasibility studies. Project cooperation is for future output. It does require time to mature. Its initial impact is, in fact, in arousing expectations regarding future opportunities, rather than on immediate returns.

Drought does diminish hydro-power capacity. Ethiopia’s electricity production potential is as follows: hydro-electric [ 50, 000 MW]; geo-thermal [ 10,000MW], wind [800MW], and solar energy [100MW]. Its current electricity installed capacity production is 4, 280 MW. In 2019-2020, this is to raised to 17, 561MW. By then, Ethiopia may have the capacity to provide electricity to all its citizens and may be to some of its neighbours like Eritrea and Somalia, that have not been included in the establishment of grid links for power export. While total consumption was 315.30 million kwh for Somalia, it was 353.90 million kwh for Eritrea, 377.10 million kwh for Djibouti, and 9.05 billion kwh for Ethiopia. [WorldData.info]

1. Every year Ethiopia loses some $ 300 million through un-official border crossing trade. The revenue from such illegal trade has used to finance armed terrorist groups. But given collaborative efforts by all its neighbours, such an amount could recovered to help finance some projects of a sub-regional nature.
2. Ethiopia currently spends 80 percent of its hard currency earnings for importing oil. But now, thanks to the discovery of substantial deposits of gas [ 7-8 billion cubic feet] as well as some 2.7 billion barrels of oil in one area alone, the situation could be reversed. While a 767 kms gas pipeline is being constructed to the port of Djibouti, the proposed construction of another pipeline linking Assab with Addis Ababa has also been unveiled with the assistance of the United Arab Emirates. Because of all this, in time, some of the gas and oil may be exported to Ethiopia’s neighbours on favourable terms. Gas pipelines can also be used for transporting oil.
3. The European Union is paying over $22 million to help re- furbish roads that connect Ethiopia and Eritrea. While the generosity of the EU is highly commendable, it should also kept in mind that the Ports of Massawa and Assab need expansion. Ethiopia may then be able to divert some 5 percent of its foreign trade to Massawa and 30 percent to Assab.
4. The Italian built 280 kms Massawa-Agordat railway has a narrow gauge of 950 mm, as opposed to the standard gauge of 1,435 mm. Perhaps Eritrea and Ethiopia could cooperate in the standardization of the gauge and in extending the railway to Tesenai and Metema as the Italians had planned in 1939-1940. Italy has also recently agreed to help finance the carrying out of feasibility studies for the construction of a railway line linking Massawa with Addis Ababa. In time, the electrification of both railway systems could go a long way in advancing trade and communication links between the two countries.
5. Djibouti, which shares 65 percent of its frontier with Ethiopia, handles 95 percent of Ethiopia’s foreign trade, and in the process, makes some one billion dollars a year. There is the 750 kms electrified railway that has brought considerable advantages to both countries. The 220 kms Dewole-Djibouti road that serves as an alternative to the railway. Has also made it possible for trucks to reach Djibouti in less time than was the case before. Additionally, the 767 kms gas pipe- line for exporting gas from Ethiopia is under construction.
6. The potash region of Dallol too linked to the port of Tadjurah by railway for exporting some 4 million tons of potash annually. All this may look rosy, but there is always some danger in putting all of one’s eggs in one basket. Since Ethiopia has more options now, it should break-down its heavy dependence on Djibouti and reduce the centrality of Djibouti for its foreign trade. Freight costs candriven down through increased competition with other ports. Ethiopia’s use of Djibouti should reduced to 50 percent.
7. With increased supply of electricity from Ethiopia. Djibouti may be able to establish a chemical industry based on its huge salt deposits. It may also develop processing plants for plastic goods and aluminum thanks to its bauxite deposits.
8. The port of Berbera has the capacity to handle 150,000 container port traffic. It expanded at the cost of 442 million dollars to able to dock 5 ships at once. The expansion is to completed in 2025. The completion of the construction of the 72 kms Togo-Wuchale – Berbera road is crucial. Ethiopia has completed its section of the road. It is planning to conduct some of its trade through Berbera, and 10% through Port Sudan. [34]
9. As part of the effort to create a single market in the sub-region, the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to develop jointly four ports. While Ethiopia gets access to the ports, Somalia too will benefit by improving its trade options through supply routes from Ethiopian markets and from port service revenues. However, creating ports in Somalia and building the necessary infrastructure is costly without the corresponding development of the Ethiopian hinterland.
10. The solution to this problem lies in exploiting the potential of the two rivers – the Wabi Shibele and the Juba. Which have their sources in Ethiopia, but which are also vital to Somalia. Both rivers have a total of some 500, 000 hectares of irrigable land. Such cash crops as sugar cane, cotton, wheat, barley, coffee, ground nuts, and a variety of fruits and vegetables can grow. It is also ideal for cattle raising. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

The land between the two rivers in Somalia itself has an irrigable potential of some 18.5 million acres [7.5 million hectares]. The Wabi Shibele alone has the potential to generate 9 billion kw of electricity. For topographic and ecological reasons, it would be beneficial for both countries to finance jointly the construction of four multi-purpose dams within Ethiopia on the two rivers, for several reasons: The destructive floods that inundate Somalia every rainy season can be controlled. Somalia will get electricity.

It will also attain self-sufficiency in food. Ethiopia should be able to settle a considerable number of its citizens in the Ogaden who suffer from constant drought and desertification. It will use the ports to export the basin’s products. That would also mean jobs and increased revenue for the benefit of both countries. Peace and Development in the Horn of AfricaConsidering Ethiopia’s growth potential, projections done by the South African research firm, World Wealth, predicts that, “Ethiopia’s future is bright.”[35]

Given the reality of the situation, however, let alone paint such a rosy picture, one cannot even be sanguine about it. The death of innocent citizens, and the senseless destruction of property, is simply unbelievable. To begin with, to bring an end to the catastrophe, the apartheid system and the policy of ethnicity that has become the modus operandi of the state would have to be abolished. Citizenship and not ethnicity should be the governing principle of the state. Scrupulous adherence to the ‘’rule of law’’ has become a daily demand. But the question is: whose law? If “law an instrument of a ruling class,” in Ethiopia’s case, it still the same law enacted by the TPLF and the OLF that was imposed on the country several years ago, and from which the people continue to suffer.

How can the people then be ruled by the same law and still liberate themselves? It appears that a transitional government composed of senior citizens, responsible minded individuals who do not belong to any political party, trustworthy individuals elected from civic organizations and universities, provincial representatives, reputed retired military officers, women’s associations, teacher’s associations, economic associations, banks, and so on, should form a transitional government and run the country on a temporary basis.

The responsibilities of such a government should include supervising the preparation of an enlightened constitution in which ethnicity will have no place. It should, among other things, advocate separation of church and state, separation of powers, independence of the judiciary, guarantee home rule to the provinces, transparency and accountability of government officials, the right to property, freedom of speech, press and assembly, legalization of legitimate civic organizations and political parties, and so on, and submitted to the public for debate and scrutiny.

Bringing to justice those officials who have committed crimes against the people and the state; stamping out corruption, restoration of the country’s historic provinces and organizing them on a federal basis, permitting individuals of Ethiopian origin holding foreign passports to vote, legalization of political parties of the right, left and centre, providing them fair access into the mass media, and inviting international observers to supervise the election. This would go a long way in restoring the country’s self-respect and image. When that happens, Samatar’s vision for the transformation of the Horn of Africa could be realized. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

Bio:

Daniel Kendie[ MSU, PhD] attended the University College of Addis Ababa, USL University of Prague. The International Institute of Social Studies. The Hague, and Michigan State University, specializing in different academic areas. He has published two books, two more would go to the press, hopefully next year. In addition, several of articles have published in professional journals.

End Notes:

Drought does diminish hydro-power capacity. Ethiopia’s electricity production potential is as follows: hydro-electric [ 50, 000 MW]; geo-thermal [ 10,000MW], wind [800MW], and solar energy [100MW]. Its current electricity installed capacity production is 4, 280 MW. In 2019-2020, this is to raised to 17, 561MW. By then, Ethiopia may have the capacity to provide electricity to all its neighbours including Eritrea. And Somalia that had not been included in the establishment of grid links for power export. While total consumption was 315.30 million kwh for Somalia, it was 353.90 million kWh for Eritrea. 377.10 million kWh for Djibouti, and 9.05 billion kwh for Ethiopia. [WorldData.info]

1. Every year Ethiopia loses some $ 300 million through un-official border crossing trade. The revenue from such illegal trade used to finance armed terrorist groups. But given collaborative efforts by all of its neighbours, such an amount

Recovered to help finance some projects of a sub-regional nature.

1. Ethiopia currently spends 80 percent of its hard currency earnings for importing oil. But now, thanks to the discovery of substantial deposits of gas [ 7-8 billion cubic feet]. As well as some 2.7 billion barrels of oil in one area alone. The situation could be reversed. While a 767kms gas pipeline constructed to the port of Djibouti. The proposed construction of a pipeline linking Assab with Addis Ababa also unveiled with the assistance of United Arab Emirates. Because of all this, in time, some of the gas and oil exported to Ethiopia’s neighbours on favourable terms. Gas pipelines can also used for transporting oil.
2. The European Union is paying over $22 million to help re furbish roads that connect Ethiopia and Eritrea. While the generosity of the EU is highly commendable, it should also kept in mind that the Ports of Massawa and Assab need expansion. Ethiopia may then be able to divert some 5 percent of its foreign trade to Massawa and 30 percent to Assab. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa
3. The Italian built 280 kms Massawa-Agordat railway has a narrow gauge of 950 mm. As opposed to the standard gauge of 1,435mm. Perhaps Eritrea and Ethiopia could cooperate in the standardization of the gauge and in extending the railway to Tesenai and Metema as the Italians had planned in 1939-1940. Italy has also recently agreed to help finance the carrying out of feasibility studies for the construction of a railway line linking Massawa with Addis Ababa. The electrification of both railway systems will go a long way in advancing trade. And communication links between the two countries.
4. Djibouti, which shares 65 percent of its frontier with Ethiopia, handles 95 percent of Ethiopia’s foreign trade, and in the process, makes some one billion dollars a year. There is the 750 kms electrified railway that has brought considerable advantages to both countries. The 220kms Dewole-Djibouti road that serves as an alternative to the railway. Has also made it possible for trucks to reach Djibouti in less time than was the case before. Additionally, the 767kms gas pipe line for exporting gas from Ethiopia is under construction.
5. The potash region of Dallol linked the port of Tadjurah by railway for exporting some 4million tons of potash annually. All this may look rosy, but there is always some danger in putting all of one’s eggs in one basket. Since Ethiopia has more options now. It should break-down its heavy dependence on Djibouti and reduce the centrality of Djibouti for its foreign trade. Freight costs can driven down through increased competition with other ports. Ethiopia’s use of Djibouti should reduced to 50 percent.
6. With increased supply of electricity from Ethiopia. Djibouti may be able to establish a chemical industry based on its huge salt deposits. It may also develop processing plants for plastic goods and aluminum thanks to its bauxite deposits.
7. The port of Berbera the capacity to handle 150,000 container port traffic and expanded. The cost of 442 million dollars able to dock 5 ships at once. The expansion completed in 2025. The completion of the construction of the 72 kms Togo-Wuchale – Berbera road is crucial. Ethiopia has completed its section of the road. It is planning to conduct some of its trade through Berbera, and 10% through Port Sudan.33

33 Birhanu Kebede, “Berbera Port Expansion Project to Commence in September,” The Reporter, 19 May 2019; see also 23, November 2019 issue of The Reporter.

1. As part of the effort to create a single market in the sub-region. The leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to develop jointly four ports. While Ethiopia gets access to the ports. Somalia too will benefit by improving its trade options through supply routes from Ethiopian markets and from port service revenues. However, creating ports in Somalia and building the necessary infrastructure is costly without the corresponding development of the Ethiopian hinterland. The solution to this problem lies in exploiting the potential of the two rivers.
2. The Wabi Shibele and the Juba, which have their sources in Ethiopia but are also vital to Somalia. Both rivers have a total of about 500, 000 hectares of irrigable land. Such cash crops as sugar cane, cotton, wheat, barley, coffee, groundnuts, and a variety of fruits and vegetables can grow. It is also ideal for cattle raising. The land between the two rivers in Somalia itself has an irrigable potential of some 18.5 million acres [7.5 million hectares]. The Wabi Shibele alone has the potential to generate 9 billion kw of electricity. For topographic and ecological reasons. It would be beneficial for both countries to finance jointly. The construction of four multi-purpose dams within Ethiopia on the two rivers, for several reasons.
3. The destructive floods that inundate Somalia every rainy season can controlled. Somalia will get electricity. It will also attain self-sufficiency in food. Ethiopia should be able to settle a considerable number of its nomadic citizens in the Ogaden. Who constantly suffer from constant drought and desertification. It will use the ports to export the basin’s products. That would also mean jobs and increased revenue for the benefit of both countries.

Considering Ethiopia’s growth potential, projections done by the South African research firm, World Wealth, predicts that,“Ethiopia’s

future is bright.”34 Given the reality of the situation. However, let alone paint such a rosy picture, one cannot even be sanguine about it. The death of innocent citizens, and the senseless daily destruction of property, is simply unbelievable. To begin with, to bring an end to the catastrophe, the apartheid system. And the policy of ethnicity that has become the modus operandi of the state would have to be abolished. Citizenship and not ethnicity should be the governing principle. Scrupulous adherence to the rule of law has become a daily demand. But the question is: If “law is an instrument of a ruling class,” in Ethiopia’s case. It still law enacted by the TPLF and the OLF that imposed. The country from which the people continue to suffer. Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

How can the people then be ruled by the same law and still liberate themselves? It appears that a transitional government composed of senior citizens. Responsible-minded individuals who do not belong to any political party. Trustworthy individuals elected from civic organizations and universities, provincial representatives, reputed retired military officers. Women’s associations, teacher’s associations, economic associations, banks. A

nd so on, should form a transitional government and run the country on a temporary basis.

Its responsibilities should include: supervising the preparation of an enlightened constitution in which ethnicity will have no place. It should submitted for public debate and scrutiny; bringing to justice those officials who have committed crimes against the people and the state, stamping out corruption. Restoration of the country’s historic provinces, and organizing them on a federal basis. Permitting individuals of Ethiopian origin holding foreign passports to vote.

Legalization of political parties of the right, left, and center. Providing them fair access into the mass media and inviting international observers to supervise the election. This would go a long way in

34 African Wealth Report 2018, (Sep.2018); See also Walnalna Wambu, “Kenya ranked fifth wealthiest in Africa,” https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001295995/kenya-ranked-fifth-wealthiest-in-africa , (Sep.18, 2018).

restoring the country’s self-respect and image. When that happens, Samatar’s vision for the transformation of the Horn of Africa could be realized.

[1] Daniel Kendie [ 1988] “NORTHEAST AFRICA AND THE WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER,” NORTHEAST AFRICAN STUDIES, volume 10, Number 1, 1988, PP, 69-82 Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

[2] IBID, p.81

[3] See the statement made by Minister of Trade and Industry, Fetlework Gebre Egziabher, “Ethiopia Needs Fifteen Years of Preparation,” Behak -New Business Ethiopia, Sept. 9, 2019 Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa

[4] Encyclopedia Princeton.

[5] Encyclopedia Britannica.

[6] GALOR, Oded [ 2005] “From Stagnation Growth: Unified Growth Theory”, in: Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf [eds,] Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam: Elsevier, Edition 1, vol.1, chapt.4: 171-293

[7] Todaro, Michael 1985] Economic Development in the Third World: An Introduction to Problems and Policies in Global Perspective, Longman Publishing Group, London and New York, pp l60-63

[8] Daniel Kendie, “Today’s Ethiopia is Fighting Yesterday’s Wars,” http://abbaymedia.info/todays-ethiopia-is-fighting-yesterdays-wars-by-daniel-kendie/ , (Oct.2, 2018).

[9] Bela Balassa [ 1961], The Theory of Economic Integration, Homewood, Illinois, 1-20.

[10] Herman J. Cohen, “How Ethiopia and Eritrea can forge a new relationship,” https://africanarguments.org/2018/06/13/how-ethiopia-eritrea-forge-new-relationship/ , (June 13, 2018).

[11] Ethiopia’s potential to assist in the transformation of the countries of the Horn of Africa is credible. The recently discovered hydro-carbon deposits in the eastern part of the country, would be a case in point. These consist of the 200 billion cubic meters of gas reserves, including crude oil deposits. The estimated cost to develop the gas could be $4 billion. It could generate $1.4 billion a year for Ethiopia and then increase to $7 billion after some years. Fairfax Africa Fund.

An investment company based in the United States expects to invest some $4 billion dollars to construct a refinery. It planned to transform 6 million tons of crude oil – equal to about 120,000 barrels of oil a day. The capacity of refinery will eventually extended to produce 12 million tons per year. See Ethiopia and the Discovery of Gas and Oil in the Ogaden,” 13 April 2018, Ice, Bloomberg. The Reporter, Ethiopia Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa.

[12] Taken from a paper presented at Addis Ababa University by Said Samatar of the Center of African Studies, Rutgers University , “Can Ethiopia Lead the Horn of Africa to Peace and Stability,” Addis Ababa, November 13, 2009 http://wardheerwnews.com/Articles_10JAN/19

[13] Joarina Mormul, “Ethio-Djibouti Relations” African Studies in Politeja, no.42, (2006): 263-286; See also Construction Review, (Apr.5, 2019).

[14] “Ethiopia acquires 19% in DP World Berbera Port,” https://gulfnews.com/business/ethiopia-acquires-19-stake-in-dp-world-berbera-port-1.2181403 , (Mar.1, 2018).

[15] “Ethiopia and Eritrea Eye Socio-Economic Integration amid Rapprochement of Ties,” The East African,

December 27,2019

[16] Yohannes Gedamu,” Why Ethiopians are Losing faith in Abiy’s Promise for Peace,” THE CONVERSATION,

November 9, 2019 1.52pm EST

[17] Daniel Kendie, “Which Way the Horn of Africa, Disintegration or Confederation?” UFAHAMU, A Journal of African Studies, 22, no.1&2, (Winter Spring 1994): 55.

[18] John Markakis, Ethiopia: Anatomy of a Traditional Polity, (New York: Oxford University Press), 1,8,67-68, 376.

[19] Frank William Taussig, “The War Tariff,” in The Tariff History of the United States, (New York), 124-154.

[20] See for example, Bernard W. Sheehan [1973], Seeds of Extinction: Jeffersonian Philanthropy and the American Indian, Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, pp, 167-172

[21] Enrico Spolaore, “What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists,” American Economic Association, Journal of Economic Perspectives, volume 27, number3, (Summer 2013): 125-144.

[22] Foreign Relations of the United States, 1958-1960, Africa, vol.14 (Dec.30. 1960); See also Jeffrey Lefebvre, Arms for the Horn: US Security Policy in Ethiopia and Somalia. 1953-1991, (Pittsburg, University of Pittsburg Press), 96.

[23] E.A. Bayne, “Birthday for Somalia,” American Universities Field Staff, North East African Series, 8, no.1, (1961):16-17.

[24] Hussein Ali Dualeh [ 2002], The Search for a New Somali Identity, London: Haan Publishers, p.96. See also David Korn [1986], Ethiopia, the USA, and the Soviet Union, (Southern Illinois University Press: Carbondale, Ill.), 293;

[25] Arab News, (Oct.27, 1993).

[26] Mohamed Kadamy, “Djibouti: Between War and Peace,” The Review of African Political Economy, 23, no.70, (1996): 511-521.

[27] Tom Farer [1976], War Clouds in the Horn of Africa, (New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), 147.

[28] Roy Pateman, “The Horn of Africa: Prospects for the Resolution of Conflict,” North East African Studies, 12, no.2&3, (1990): 147.

[29] I.M. Lewis, “Recent Developments in the Somali Dispute,” African Affairs, 66, no.262, (1967): 112.

[30] “The Joint Declaration on Friendship and Comprehensive Cooperation Between Ethiopia and Eritrea of July 9, 2018,” Governmental Publications; See also African Review, (Sep.6, 2018).

[31] Meles Zenawi, “States and Markets: New-Liberal Limitations and the Case for a Developmental State, (Jan.2012) [in] Alex De Waal, The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa, (Polity Press, 2015), 161.

[32] Addisu Lashitew, “Ethiopia’s newly unified ruling party pivots to a liberal political economy” AFRICA IN FOCUS,

Friday, December 6, 2019

[33] “World Bank President Begins Visit to Three African Countries,” https://www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&id=41403&SEO=world-bank-president-begins-visit-to-three-african-countries , (Apr.29, 2019).

[34] Birhanu Kebede, “Berbera Port Expansion Project to Commence in September,” The Reporter: Addis Ababa, 19 May 2019; see also 23, November 2019 issue of The Reporter.

[35] African Wealth Report 2018, (Sep.2018); See also Walnalna Wambu, “Kenya ranked fifth wealthiest in Africa,” https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001295995/kenya-ranked-fifth-wealthiest-in-africa , (Sep.18, 2018).